Locks: Birdman, Boyhood, The Grand Budapest Hotel, The Imitation Game, Selma, The Theory of Everything<br />Likely: Foxcatcher, Gone Girl, Whiplash<br />Outside bets: Nightcrawler, American Sniper<br />Very outside bets: Unbroken, A Most Violent Year<br />Best director<br />The DGA nomination for Clint Eastwood means that despite lukewarm notices for American Sniper, the 84-year-old is likely to squeak through. But we’re pretty confident Morten Tyldum’s DGA place will go to Selma’s Ava DuVernay – would the Oscars really turn down the chance to nominate a black woman for the first time ever in the category? Foxcatcher had been felt to have lost momentum, but there might have been a last minute surge of support from those upset by Mark Schultz’s slamming of Bennett Miller on Twitter (and those who remember Miller’s Cannes win).<br />Locks: Alejandro González Iñárritu (Birdman), Richard Linklater (Boyhood)<br />Likely: Wes Anderson (The Grand Budapest Hotel), Clint Eastwood (American Sniper), Ava DuVernay (Selma)<br />Outside bet: Bennett Miller (Foxcatcher), Morten Tyldum (The Imitation Game), Damien Chazelle (Whiplash), David Fincher (Gone Girl)<br />Best supporting actress<br />The two female acting races this year are basically done and dusted. Nobody thinks Patricia Arquette won’t win this, so her fellow nominees are academic. The only real question is whether Jessica Chastain or Rene Russo will get that fifth place. We’re opting for the latter.<br />Locks: Patricia Arquette (Boyhood)<br />Likely: Keira Knightley (The Imitation Game), Emma Stone (Birdman), Meryl Streep, (Into the Woods), Rene Russo (Nightcrawler)<br />Outside bet: Jessica Chastain (A Most Violent Year)<br />Best supporting actor<br />JK Simmons has this sewn up, but there is the slight chance that voters will fall into the Spall/Bafta trap and simply assume enough other people will tick his box. The big question will be whether Steve Carell is nominated for lead (as per Globes) or supporting (Baftas) for Foxcatcher. If it’s the former, then Tom Wilkinson or Robert Duval
