Opinion polls in Italy are predicting the prime minister’s defeat in a constitutional referendum due at the start of December.<br /><br /> If it comes to pass, it will be the third big anti-establishment revolt by voters in a major Western country this year, following Britain’s unexpected vote to leave the EU and the US election of Donald Trump. <br /><br /> Matteo Renzi has vowed to resign if the “Yes” vote, which he has backed, loses.<br /><br /> <br /><br /><br /><br /> Last Italy referendum poll reveals Renzi to be DEFEATED in referendum in next blow for EU https://t.co/31G6DPPKMm— Voice of Europe (@V_of_Europe) November 27, 2016<br /> <br /><br /> <br /><br /><br /><br /> Mounting pressure<br /><br /> <br /><br /><br /><br /> Pressure is mounting on Renzi to drop his threat and agree to remain in power.<br /><br /> Commentators have said he will be needed to deal with the fallout from a “No” vote, including the risk of full-blown banking crisis.<br /><br /> US President Barack Obama urged Renzi to “hang around for a while, no matter what”.<br /><br /> <br /><br /><br /><br /> What is the referendum about?<br /><br /> <br /><br /><br /><br /> The referendum proposes constitutional reforms to strengthen the lower house of parliament and reduce the authority of the upper house or Senate.<br /><br /> Regions would lose some decision-making powers to bolster central government.<br /><br /> Renzi says the project is necessary to make <br />Italy governable enough to enact reforms needed to revive its moribund economy.<br /><br /> Opponents say it would reduce democratic checks and balances.<br /><br /> <br /><br /><br /><br /> The third major anti-establishment shock of 2016 could be about to strike the globe https://t.co/hJZdV26uVZ— The Independent (@Independent) November 27, 2016<br /> <br /><br /> <br /><br /><br /><br /> What the polls say<br /><br /> <br /><br /><br /><br /> Opinion polls cannot be legally published in the final two weeks of campaigning.<br /><br /> However, the last 40 surveys released before the November the 18th cut-off showed the “No” camp ahead by up to 11 percentage points.<br /><br /> A source in Renzi’s Democratic Party (PD) says private polls suggest this gap will be closed to five points.<br /><br /> A quarter of voters are still undecided, meaning victory is still possible.<br /><br /> Initially, the plan was backed by 70% of Italians.<br /><br /> However, when an over-confident Renzi said at the end of 2015 he would resign if defeated, opposition parties turned the referendum into a de-facto ballot on his two-and-a-half years in office.<br /><br /> <br /><br /><br /><br /> Renzi’s record<br /><br /> <br /><br /><br /><br /> Commentators say Renzi’s record is mixed.<br /><br /> Despite many reforms, Italy is set to have the third-lowest growth in the 28-nation EU in 2016, and the second-lowest next year, according to EU forecasts.<br /><br /> Unemployment is stuck above 11% and wages are stagnant.<br /><br /> <br /><br /><br /><br /> Matteo Renzi's reform sounds sensible. However, the details offend against democratic principles https://t.co/rO0Otm0VTS— The Economist (@TheEconomist) November 26, 2016<br /> <br /><br /> <br /><br /><br /><br /> What would a “No” vote mean?<br /><br /> <br /><br /><br /><br /> It would be seen as more evidence of voter fury in Europe ahead of elections in France and Germany next year.<br /><br /> Renzi’s exit could also benefit the populist, ex-comedian Beppe Grillo, who wants to ditch the euro currency.<br /><br /> G
