We’re Getting Awfully Close to Full Employment -<br />Get the Upshot in your Inbox<br />There is one prism through which we should analyze the April jobs numbers released Friday<br />and each of the remaining reports in 2017: How close to full employment are we, really?<br />In an economy at full employment, pretty much anyone who wants a job can get one, companies have incentive to offer pay raises,<br />and firms are more inclined to offer training, flexible work arrangements and other concessions that benefit their workers.<br />But beyond employer caterwauling, the best sign that the economy has reached full employment will be if wage gains return to their pre-recession<br />norms; wage growth for nonmanagerial workers of 4 percent or more was normal in 2006 and 2007; now that number is only 2.3 percent.<br />Taken in isolation, these numbers would seem to suggest<br />that the economy is most certainly at full employment and maybe even running a little hot — that is, revving faster than will be possible in the long run without just fueling inflation.
