Who Will Be Trump’s Pick to Lead the Fed? We Asked Experts to Rate the Odds<br />Ms. Yellen has a possibility of being renominated, according to this consensus, but it is only 22 percent; experts think<br />that Kevin Warsh, a former Fed governor with deep Republican ties, has a slightly better chance at 23 percent.<br />But those two top contenders combine for lower than 50 percent odds in our expert survey — meaning<br />that our panelists thought there was a better-than-even chance that the appointment will be one of many contenders with individually modest but collectively high chances of rising to the top of the president’s list.<br />On Thursday afternoon, trading on PredictIt implied 30 percent odds for Ms. Yellen and 28 percent for Mr. Warsh.<br />If Mr. Trump wanted a nominee who would probably maintain continuity with current Fed policy<br />but was more conservative and business-minded than Ms. Yellen, Mr. Powell would be a below-the-radar option.<br />“Although President Trump is unorthodox in many ways, every president wants calm financial markets.”<br />The case against Ms. Yellen is similarly straightforward: She is a liberal economist in a government dominated by conservatives.
