How U.S. Intelligence Agencies Underestimated North Korea<br />6, 2018<br />WASHINGTON — At the start of Donald Trump’s presidency, American intelligence agencies told the new administration<br />that while North Korea had built the bomb, there was still ample time — upward of four years — to slow or stop its development of a missile capable of hitting an American city with a nuclear warhead.<br />At a speed that caught American intelligence officials off guard, Mr. Kim rolled out new missile technology — based on a decades-old Soviet engine design, apparently developed in a parallel program — and in quick succession demonstrated ranges<br />that could reach Guam, then the West Coast, then Washington.<br />And the shakiness of intelligence on North Korea — even on fundamental questions like how many<br />nuclear weapons Mr. Kim possesses — casts a shadow over Mr. Trump’s options going forward.<br />Ostensibly, North Korea suspended its nuclear weapons program in 1994 after a tense standoff with the United States<br />that brought the two countries closer than ever — until recent months — to resuming the Korean War.<br />He understands human nature and understands he will never have perfect intelligence about capabilities<br />and intentions." The North’s rapid progress raises a number of awkward questions: Did the American sabotage effort, for example, prompt Mr. Kim to scrap an ailing missile program for a new generation of more capable rocket engines?<br />28 Aug. 29 Sep. 15 Nov. 28 2,000 miles 4,000 6,000 8,000 JAN. 6, 2018<br />Four years later, when the United States was mired in the first year of the Iraq war, the council refined its prediction, saying<br />a "crisis over North Korea is likely to come to a head sometime over the next 15 years," that is, no later than 2019.
