Our next guest has correctly predicted the last nine presidential elections from 1984 through 2012.<br />American University History Professor Allan Lichtman's popular vote predictions were perfect including the 2000 election which the Supreme Court ultimately awarded to George W. Bush.<br />In 2016, he predicted an electoral college victory for Donald Trump who lost the popular vote to Hillary Clinton.<br />Professor Lichtman joins me now from Bethesda, Maryland. Professor Lichtman, thank you so much for joining us.<br />Not only are your predictions overwhelmingly correct, but you often make them very early.<br />Can you give us an explanation of how your model works?<br /><br />(You're really analyzing the performance of the party as a whole. The candidate is almost secondary, here.)<br />Amazing. Is it too early to make a prediction for 2020 or do you have that in your pocket yet?<br />Because back in May, you told CNN, Donald Trump will win the 2020 election unless the "the Democrats grow a spine and do their constitutional duty and move into an impeachment inquiry.<br />They've launched their inquiry. Is that enough? Do you think the 2020 election is now for the Democrats to lose?<br />I understand your model. But, I do want to point out that this election is unlike any other in a variety of ways. One of which is that you have a huge field of democratic candidates.<br />The party is more important than the candidate when it comes to your model.<br />But, do you see any variance depending on who wins the democratic nomination. You have candidates on one side of the spectrum - Sanders and Warren versus Biden. Will that not have any effect at all?<br />How much does foreign policy, for instance, policy vis-a-vis North Korea, performance impact a candidate or a party's win for 2020 presidential election?<br />Finally, what are some key factors that will shape the 2020 presidential election between now and November 2020?<br />Absolutely fascinating. Professor Allan Lichtman, many thanks for your fascinating insights this morning. We appreciate it.<br />
