MINNEAPOLIS — A report by the University of Minnesota's Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy published last Thursday predicts that the coronavirus pandemic could last from 18 to 24 months.<br /><br />Experts who participated in the study believe the pandemic will not stop until around 60 to 70 percent of the population becomes immune to the virus.<br /><br />The coronavirus's longer incubation period and high R0, or reproduction number, make it a highly contagious virus. According to a study published in Emerging Infectious Diseases, COVID-19's R0 is a median of 5.7, meaning an infected individual can spread the virus to five to six people.<br /><br />The study suggests all authorities should prepare for the worst-case scenario or scenario 2, which according to their study is one where the first wave of the spread is followed by a larger wave in the fall or winter of this year.<br /><br />The researchers posed two other scenarios. Scenario 1 sees small waves of the virus similar in impact occur for about one to two years. In this scenario, the virus slowly stops spreading sometime in 2021.<br /><br />The third scenario described in the study suggests the first wave we experienced this spring becomes a "slow burn" — depending on the mitigation strategies imposed in different places.<br /><br />What about after it is all "done"? The study says that SARS-CoV-2 will potentially continue to hang around us humans, popping in and out seasonally with a "diminished severity over time," just like other viruses do. Let's hope that day comes sooner rather than later.
