Polls taken around Independence Day in an election year tend to be highly correlated with the November results in incumbent contests.<br />And according to CNN, that means incumbent candidate President Donald J. Trump is in a lot of trouble.<br />A new Monmouth University poll finds former Vice President Joe Biden with a 53% to 41% lead over Trump.<br />The average live interview poll conducted over the last month also has Biden ahead by a similar 11-point margin.<br />Even more troublesome for the president? No one in an incumbent presidential election has been polling above 50% at this point like Biden and gone on to lose.<br />There's still time for volatility. The polls will probably bounce around during the convention period. Trump could close the gap and win.<br />But make no mistake: An incumbent trailing by double-digits in early July with an opponent over 50% is a heavy underdog for reelection.
