Bond traders are betting on a Federal Reserve rate cut next month, with eyes on Chair Jerome Powell’s speech Friday at Jackson Hole. Traders expect Powell to adopt a dovish tone due to a weakening job market, though hotter-than-expected inflation has tempered some economists’ confidence. Investors see a quarter-point cut as nearly certain, with some wagers even targeting a half-point move. Powell has signaled that upcoming jobs and inflation data will guide the Fed’s Sept. 17 decision. Yields have fallen in August on weak employment figures, steepening the curve. Trump’s pressure on Powell to ease rates and looming fiscal policy moves are adding to speculation. Traders expect Powell to avoid pushing back against bets but stress the August jobs report will be decisive.
