Will the Iranian Regime Collapse Due to Economic Collapse or War?<br /><br />The US-Iranian conflict has deeply damaged Iran's leadership structure and the military capabilities of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), including its missiles, drones, and warships. Contrary to what both the US and Iran claim, the country is losing its ability to deliver serious strikes. Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has stated that despite the killing of key government leaders, the country maintains a strong leadership structure with immediate replacements ready. In this new context, the world's eyes are now on the US military's deployment of warships to the Strait of Hormuz—the economic lifeblood of the Iranian regime.<br /><br />To provide an analytical perspective, we turn to the explanation of Mr. Nun Burin, as shared via YouTube and Facebook groups.<br /><br />Analysis by Mr. Nun Burin:<br /><br />We can begin by examining the consequences Iran faces as it tries to maintain its leadership. The conflict and economic tension continue, with the closure of the Gulf of Oman—Iran's most important economic lifeline. From the start, divisions have emerged within Iran's leadership between IRGC generals and the Majlis (parliament), both of which hold influence over the government.<br /><br />The IRGC has consistently pushed President Masoud Pezeshkian's government to reach an early agreement with the United States. Meanwhile, the Majlis and surviving top generals believe that the only parties capable of preventing a wider war are the US and Israel. However, if we examine a 40-day period of US-Israeli airstrikes, we see significant losses. The Middle East Studies Group found that Iran lost an estimated $300 million in economic resources during such strikes. These airstrikes targeted energy infrastructure, oil and gas facilities, and transportation networks in major industrial centers, including steel and chemical plants. All were severely damaged before a 14-day ceasefire was reached on April 8.<br /><br />The Center for Regional Studies reported that Iran lost $300 billion in financial support for its government and society. During the war, the Iranian market saw the US dollar soar by nearly 200%, severely affecting ordinary citizens, workers, civil servants, and even military families. The Iranian currency has depreciated so drastically that buying a chicken at the market now requires waiting for it to be packed and placed in a large bag before you can purchase it and return home—a sign of extreme inflation. The international financial system predicts that by 2026, Iran's economic infrastructure will be under severe strain. Already losing revenue due to a direct economic blockade by US warships, Iran—which exports crude oil through both legal and black-market channels—is losing over $435 million per day. The International Monetary Fund predicts that Iran's treasury will soon be unable to pay salaries to workers, civil servants, and the military.<br /><br />If the US continues to block the Strait of Hormuz and int
